8 March 2014

The sealing off of Crimea continues. Reporters (including Associated Press and Canadian CBC) are being targeted, their cameras taken by force or blocked.

Ukrainian military bases continue to be raided by armed, masked, men overnight. They wear no insignias and refuse to identify themselves, while they forceable take away weapons from the Ukrainian troops. There were no reports of shooting or injury, but all of Ukraine's military bases in Crimea that have not yet surrendered to the pro-Russian side are understood to be under siege.

Armed men have also stopped a team of military and civilian observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) from entering the peninsula. The Russian foreign ministry said the group was stopped because it had not secured "official invitations" from Crimean authorities.

The main fear many people in Crimea voice, is that that agent provocateurs working for pro-Russia nationalists or Kremlin security services, could launch attacks or fire shots that would be used to justify Russian military intervention. But this justification is already being assumed, in spite of no precedence of actual conflict in the Crimean peninsula or actual threats to Russian speakers or citizens residing there. Crimean people are organising themselves into unarmed patrol groups. They know they are no match for Russia-backed militias or regular soldiers, but they are determined to prevent escalation.

An overwhelming sentiment in Crimea and Kyiv is that the growing conflict and tension is between Russia and western powers. Ukraine and Ukrainians are being used, prodded, and provoked by foreign powers in an attempt to tear apart small communities in Crimea and the entire nation.

Excerpts from Julian Evans (British travel writer and biographer, published in New Statesman March 7, 2014):

What we, “concerned outsiders, careful diplomat, pragmatic politician, deep-thinking strategist, denizens of all shades of eastern and western foreign policy”, must understand is the response to the decades of ‘abusive relationship’ between Russian and Ukraine.

It is a moral vacuum they need to get rid of in their country, not the political. The moral vacuum is ‘the only vacuum that matters’.

The people in Maidan began with a mission that has not yet been achieved. In the words of an anonymous female Maidaner, on twitter the day the new government of unity was to be announced: ‘We haven’t won yet. All the politicans in power during the last ten years must go.’ ... It is not a political reaction, nor a particularly political one. It is the final, unreflecting “Enough”.

Nationalists, ultra-nationalists and the motley crew of right-wing survivalists and anti-Semitic groups represented by Svoboda, Right Sector and others all made themselves visible on the Maidan. But their prominence, like that of genuine separatists or Putin’s stooges in Crimea or Kharkiv, could – with tactful handling – have been diminished to the margins where, even in the most balanced societies, they will always exist. The nationalism of most Maidaners is that of the care of Ukrainians who, from the 18th century onwards, ... , began to cultivate a sense of nation as a cultural, literary and social rebuttal of their suppressed status.


All this is now significantly more complicated by Putin’s invasion of Crimea. We should have forseen it; the abusive partner never wants to let the other one go, or, put it another way, Putin’s very Soviet cynicism understands how little the west wants to take in on.  ... What we must not do is fail to give strong support, and so embitter Ukraine’s new-found belief in European ideals. We must not, from neglect or pious realpolitik, act as we did previously and let it slip back into its old abusive relationship and subservience, subject to Putin’s violent but oddly fey muscle-flexing.

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