31 March 2014

Around 20:30 Kyiv time, an altercation began between the Self-Defense guards in Maidan and a member of the ultra/far-right group, Right Sector. News feeds remain unclear, however it seems that the Right Sector member was drunk and trying to bring alcohol into Maidan. The guard stopped him from coming in, and a member of the Self-Defense group in Maidan went to others to ask how they should proceed. It is alleged that the Right Sector guy was armed and shot twice, wounding three of the men (including the ‘superintendent’ of Maidan who was called to help), as well as one ‘civilian’ who was nearby.

The conflict escalated when members of Right Sector retreated first to a nearby restaurant (called ‘Mafia’). Members of the Maidan Self-Defense, after deliberation, called on the police to help diffuse the situation. A standoff between 30 Maidan Self-Defense, with police assistance, ensued for a few hours outside the make-shift headquarters of the Right Sector in the Hotel Dnipro.

The Right Sector has been demonstrating outside Verkovna Rada since Saturday. On Saturday (28 March), about 100 Right Sector attempted to storm the Rada demanding the resignation (indeed, some calling for the death) of Arsen Avakov, the Ukrainian Interior Minister. Avakov has called that Right Sector be banned, for their far-right, extremist views, as well as their militant call-to-arms since one of their members was killed on 24 March by Ukrainian police. The Right Sector blames Avakov for the death of their member.

Most of the weapons in Right Sector’s possession are believed to have been stolen from an Interior Ministry depot in the chaotic days of late February. A government-imposed deadline for the return of those arms passed last Friday, yet there is no way of knowing how many of them remain in private hands.

Around 23:00 Kyiv time, the Maidan Self-Defense groups surrounded the perimeter of Hotel Dnipro, so that people passing by would not get involved. The members of the Right Sector inside the hotel began packing their belongings and evacuated the Hotel Dnipro by dawn, into buses, escorted by police. The hotel staff stated there were over 100 ‘boys’ in the hotel, members of the Right Sector, many of whom were armed. However, when evacuating the hotel they left unarmed. I am unclear as to where they were taken. Avakov may have ordered all member of Right Sector to be under arrest.

The Right Sector has since issued an official statement that the conflict was caused by a ‘misunderstanding on home soil’ and will engage in an investigation with the police and Maidan Self-Defense.

In other news, earlier today Russia's Prime Minister Medvedev arrived in Crimea. He is the most senior Russian official to visit since it was annexed from Ukraine and the Ukrainian government has condemned the visit for being a ‘crude violation’ of international rules. Medvedev's visit was unexpected. Mr Medvedev announced that the region would become a special economic zone, with incentives for businesses.

This visit came the same day that Russian parliament approved a bill terminating a number of agreements with Ukraine over the Black Sea fleet. The Duma voted unanimously to terminate three agreements signed in 1997 and the one in 2010, citing the Vienna Convention of 1969 which gives Moscow a right to cancel international agreements. The Black Sea fleet will now be regulated by Russian laws, as the Sevastopol naval base has become Russian territory. This is in spite of major Western powers refusing to recognize the new Russian territory.

Needless to say, talks between John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov held throughout this past weekend ended without a breakthrough. Lavrov has repeated that Moscow has no intention of invading eastern Ukraine and reinforced a message from Putin that Moscow would settle, at least for now, for control over Crimea. He continues to repeat, however, that Russia is ready to protect the rights of Russian speakers. He claims Moscow sees Russian speakers lives are threatened in eastern Ukraine.

In Ukraine, more media attention has turned to Presidential candidate, Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko is known as "the chocolate king" for his ownership of Ukraine's largest confectionery manufacturer, Roshen. He is an experienced MP, though currently unaffiliated to any of the country's political parties, and the only oligarch to have supported the pro-European opposition from the start.

He also owns 5 Kanal TV, the most popular news channel in Ukraine, which has shown clear pro-opposition sympathies during the political crisis. He portrays himself as a pragmatic politician who sees Ukraine's future in Europe, but hopes to mend relations with Russia. His pledges are to implement local governance reform, grant more powers to the country's regions, facilitate economic reforms, and improve the investment climate.

Poroshenko, from Odessa region, was previously one of the founders of Yanukovych's Party of Regions. After helping to set it up in 2001, however, he left to lead Yushchenko's Our Ukraine electoral bloc, and played a role in the Orange Revolution. He was foreign minister in Ms Tymoshenko's government from 2009 to 2010, then returned briefly as economic development and trade minister in 2012.