Tensions are rising throughout the country as
pro-Ukrainian unity self-defense units are active in Donestk and Luhansk. In
Crimea, the population is increasingly under threat especially the Tatar minority communities. For those wanting
Ukrainian Oblasts to become a part of Russia, this seems to be what the people have to
look forward to.
Crimea’s prime minister issued a decree
forbidding all public demonstrations until 6 June, in an apparent attempt to
prevent the annual rally on Sunday commemorating Stalin's deportation of the
Tatars in 1944. Crimea's chief
prosecutor, Natalia Poklonskaya, said last week that members of the Mejlis were
suspected of ‘extremist activity’ and that the council could be ‘liquidated’.
Despite a promise by Putin
last month to deal with issues including housing for Crimean Tatars, independent Crimean political analyst
Sergei Kostinsky
said Moscow has yet to take serious steps to rein in Crimean chauvinism.
Russians are beginning to express old biases in everyday life. The pressure on
Tatar political leaders seems to be a clear attempt by Moscow to crush
opposition to its rule in Crimea. Eventually, it would be advantageous for
Russia to divide the Tatars politically.
It is also in Russia’s
interest that the Ukrainian governors and economic/political leaders become
more and more divided. It seems that the accusations that Donetsk oligarch, Rinat
Akhmetov was supporting the separatists were intended as part of a strategy to blame
Ukrainians internally for causing the violence and unrest. This would allow
Russia to, at some point, either before or after the election, to step in as if
in a peace-keeping intervention. Akhmetov denied claims of funding separatists,
however he has spoken out in favour of constitutional reforms to give the
regions more autonomy and power.
Excerpt from David Patrikarakos, 15 May, New
Statesman:
A collective psychosis,
born of machismo and paranoia and fuelled by rumour, is taking hold. The
latest story gaining traction in the capital is that thousands of Russians
– solitary males of military age – have begun to appear in Kyiv, renting rooms
and just waiting. “Let them come,” says Maksym, my wiry and intense landlord.
“I’ve got body armour and I’m cleaning all my guns.”
Many members of the camouflaged militia are unemployed young men
from small towns, who have a new purpose and sense of belonging. It’s hard to
imagine them willingly returning to their previous lives now.
Whether or not the two sides will face each other in the coming
weeks remains to be seen. What is clear is that the further destabilisation of
Ukraine is Moscow’s goal, at least in the short term.
Central to Russian propaganda and the arguments of the separatists
is that the Kyiv government is an “unelected junta”. By democratically
electing a new president, some legitimacy would be restored, which is what
Putin fears. One of his spokesmen recently said that it would be “absurd” to
proceed with the polls.
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