16 May 2014

Tensions are rising throughout the country as pro-Ukrainian unity self-defense units are active in Donestk and Luhansk. In Crimea, the population is increasingly under threat especially the Tatar minority communities. For those wanting Ukrainian Oblasts to become a part of Russia, this seems to be what the people have to look forward to.


Crimea’s prime minister issued a decree forbidding all public demonstrations until 6 June, in an apparent attempt to prevent the annual rally on Sunday commemorating Stalin's deportation of the Tatars in 1944. Crimea's chief prosecutor, Natalia Poklonskaya, said last week that members of the Mejlis were suspected of ‘extremist activity’ and that the council could be ‘liquidated’.

Despite a promise by Putin last month to deal with issues including housing for Crimean Tatars, independent Crimean political analyst Sergei Kostinsky said Moscow has yet to take serious steps to rein in Crimean chauvinism. Russians are beginning to express old biases in everyday life. The pressure on Tatar political leaders seems to be a clear attempt by Moscow to crush opposition to its rule in Crimea. Eventually, it would be advantageous for Russia to divide the Tatars politically.


It is also in Russia’s interest that the Ukrainian governors and economic/political leaders become more and more divided. It seems that the accusations that Donetsk oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov was supporting the separatists were intended as part of a strategy to blame Ukrainians internally for causing the violence and unrest. This would allow Russia to, at some point, either before or after the election, to step in as if in a peace-keeping intervention. Akhmetov denied claims of funding separatists, however he has spoken out in favour of constitutional reforms to give the regions more autonomy and power.

Excerpt from David Patrikarakos, 15 May, New Statesman:

A collective psychosis, born of machismo and paranoia and fuelled by rumour, is taking hold. The latest story gaining traction in the capital is that thousands of Russians – solitary males of military age – have begun to appear in Kyiv, renting rooms and just waiting. “Let them come,” says Maksym, my wiry and intense landlord. “I’ve got body armour and I’m cleaning all my guns.”

Many members of the camouflaged militia are unemployed young men from small towns, who have a new purpose and sense of belonging. It’s hard to imagine them willingly returning to their previous lives now.

Whether or not the two sides will face each other in the coming weeks remains to be seen. What is clear is that the further destabilisation of Ukraine is Moscow’s goal, at least in the short term.

Central to Russian propaganda and the arguments of the separatists is that the Kyiv government is an “unelected junta”. By democratically electing a new president, some legitimacy would be restored, which is what Putin fears. One of his spokesmen recently said that it would be “absurd” to proceed with the polls.


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