28 March 2014

Col. Mamchur has been released. In an interview with a Ukrainian journalist (Ukrainska Pravda) he stated, “I was kept in solitary confinement for 3.5 days. The first day unknown Russian military persons talked to me constantly, trying to convince me to betray my military oath to the people of Ukraine and to go over to serve the Russian arm. Then there was psychological pressure. I wasn’t allowed to sleep. They banged on the door constantly. My health is fine. My mood is combative. What will I do next? First, I’ll take a shower, then I’ll decide. Glory to Ukraine.” Mamchur was reported to have stated, whilst still at the base in Belbeck that they were holding their ground, staying in the Ukrainian military base not because of Maidan. He stated, ‘we are not fascists, we are Russians, locals. All of us live here. If they want a referendum — let them hold a referendum. But why should they capture the airfield?’ For his resistance to the Russian invasion, he was abducted.

Today, Moscow announced that the Kharkiv Agreement was no longer valid. This agreement, reached in 2010 between former President Yanukovych and President Putin, extended the Black Sea Fleet lease agreement to 2042 in exchange for a USD100 per 1,000 cu metre discount on gas supplied by Russia to Ukraine. 

Given that Crimea has now been annexed by Russia, Moscow argues that the lease agreement is in effect null and void. Moscow threatened that USD11bn is now owing by Ukraine to Russia for discounted gas supplied. This claim would likely be very difficult to enforce given the subsequent Russia move to annex Crimea - Ukraine has in turn threatened to seek compensation from Russia for assets seized.

However, Russian oligarchs are feeling the impact of US sanctions. International bankers have their access to credit dried up, and stock prices dropping. Russian owners of mining, metal, energy, financial services, engineering and defense are becoming afraid that sanctions on their sectors are next.

In Kyiv, numerous candidates have announced their intention to run in the May 25 presidential elections, including Poroshenko, Klitchko and Tymoshenko, and the former ruling Regions party has nominated Mikhailo Dobkin, the former governor of the Eastern oblast of Kharkhiv, as its candidate.

Yanukovych has called for regions in Ukraine to be allowed to follow Crimea and vote to determine their future status in Ukraine. This is in line with Russia's call for the Federalisation of Ukraine, which many see as a precursor to the further break up of Ukraine. Yanukovych made these comments from Russia, but his party, Party of Regions is threatening to expel him from the party - a decision is expected over the weekend. 

The total amount of Ukraine’s debt has reached 53 % of GDP, or UAH 800bn, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk stated in the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday. He said that the amount of foreign reserves has dropped from USD 34.6bn by USD 20bn since January 1, 2013.  Today, reserves stand at only USD 15.5bn.

The Right Sector held a protest outside Parliament (Verchovna Rada). Turchynov (interim President), has warned against the threat of a surging far-right group in the country. Many, including the interim government, are worried about how the ultra-nationalist Right Sector is moving to destabilize the country.