Nov. 3 2014 - looking back, looking ahead

The end of this month, November, will mark a year since the first violence broke out, when Berkut police attacked protestors who gathered to protest against the Ukrainian government. 

Since late November 2013, Ukraine has transformed. From the freezing, snowy days of December 2013, until the sun-filled August days when the stones of Maidan were re-built and the camps largely dismantled, Kyiv’s Maidan Nezalezhnosi was the site of a people’s movement. People, not only residents of Kyiv, but persons from across Ukraine converged to demand a change in the government. Yanukovych fled the country, the government was toppled, Russia annexed Crimea, war erupted in the east and the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic was formed and armed by Russia. International attention turned quickly to economic interests, sanctions against Russia were negotiated, Russian sanctions against the USA and Europe retaliated and Cold War rhetoric raged while Ukrainians were forgotten. There presence and their actions in Maidan were painted as either a Western plot, a US or EU movement to target Russia, or as a Russian conspiracy from the very beginning (for a thoughtful analysis of how Ukraine has been ‘orientalised’ by Western commentary on Ukraine, read here). 

But Ukraine, Ukrainians have been transformed—in Maidan, people of various backgrounds, occupations, Russian-speakers, Ukrainian-speakers from north/east/south and west stood together to demand change, fed-up with decades of corrupt rule and a decaying social, economic and political system. It was a social, societal revolution that threatened the core of the Ukrainian elite—whose breakdown exposed the extent of Russian power and dominance in Ukraine. Russia retaliated to the Maidan movement, and continues to retaliate, first with the illegal annexation of Crimea, and now with provoking and funding, arming, the separatists in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Meanwhile, Putin and the Kremlin officially continue to deny any direct involvement arming separatists in Ukraine, in spite of direct evidence that they are supplying weapons and personnel. Ukraine is now lead by a new government, led by President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatsenyuk. And the country has drifted to bankruptcy and IMF funding packages are being discussed, estimated around $1.1 billion and financed between the IMF and the European Union (although, Ukraine has taken certain actions that contradict its obligations to the IMF, for example placed restrictions on the foreign exchange market -- more on this in the next post). 

Ukraine's GDP may drop 10% this year as the government grapples with a country at war and with a decayed social and economic system. As winter approaches, fears increase that Russian gas supplies to Ukraine will be completely cut and that Ukrainians will be without power throughout the winter months (apparently in Lviv people have begun repairing old tiled stoves in anticipation of a cold, tough winter ahead).  

Following the parliamentary elections on Sunday October 26 2014, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are now facing the need to form a coalition government. But the economic crisis and war overshadow attempts for sustained solid and long-term planning or governance. It seems Putin’s plan of dis-abling Ukraine as a nation capable of standing it’s ground and functioning as a nation-state is unfolding as Putin desires. Putin has been playing on multiple fronts: diplomatically smiling and nodding with Merkel and EU leaders at various summits and meetings intending to solve the crisis, while orchestrating an illegal annexation and fake election in full view of the international leaders and media, and funding thugs and disenfranchised Russians and Ukrainians to wreak havoc in Ukraine’s Donestk and Luhansk regions. Putin has managed to destabilise Ukraine. This is not a consequence of Maidan. It is a consequence of Russian imperialism and an entrenched Soviet notion, largely uncontested by the ‘West’, which holds that Ukraine is not an independent country, but rather is little-Russia. Through annexing Crimea, Putin has secured Russian access to the Black Sea via Sevestapol, and is now continuing to prevent Ukraine from being able to form a social and economic plan of reforming decades of corrupt rule and decay (thus keeping Ukraine reliant on Russian gas as well as Russian influence). 

Somehow, we, the world/international attention and public opinion, have forgotten about Crimea. How common is it now to think, in passing, Crimea is Russia? Or at least to think of the majority of persons living there as being Russian. But looking back on the events last March, and thinking of the Crimean Tatar population, as well as those who are not keen to be under the direct control of the Kremlin, we remember that Crimea was illegally annexed. (This is a film, 'Crimea without choice/vote' ("about those under a repressive system, about the people who are not following the propaganda..") http://www.hromadske.tv/politics/krim-bez-viboru/) 

Currently, violence continues in the east in spite of a ceasefire that was reached in a September agreement in Minsk. The ceasefire did provide some relief after months of fighting where over 4,000 people and army personnel were killed. However the Donetsk airport has throughout seen eruptions of violence throughout, as the self-declared people’s republic of Donetsk, now led primarily by Russian citizens or those directly linked to Russian forces, struggle to maintain their control over the region. 

On November 2, 2014, the so-called People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk held elections, to elect leaders and thereby demonstrate their control over the region and authority. The elections were not recognised by any European nations, and the Ukrainian  government deemed them illegitimate. Nevertheless, the elections went ahead, with representatives of the republics armed with machine guns at every polling station.

Leading up to these so-called elections, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow would recognise the results of the vote. The Kremlin however, characteristically stayed silent on any commentary before the vote. Monday Nov., 3rd however a statement was issued that Russia 'respects the will of the people of the southeast.' Deja vu (Crimea).

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is continuing its monitoring mission throughout the country and eastern region. In light of these 'elections', the OSCE reported that one of its drones (that is part of the monitoring mission) has been fired at by separatists using anti-aircraft guns. Again, as mentioned in previous posts, such arms can only come from Russia--ptherwise where would these disgruntled eastern civilians who have taken up arms as the 'separatist' forces (who, by the way only make up around 20% of the local population) get such weapons? The PSCE also reported that another of their drones was electronically jammed by separatists operating near Mariupol.

The elections and these actions fuel fears that Russian-backed separatist groups are gearing up for a fresh offensive against Ukrainian military still present in the region (but severely under staffed and under funded).  Re-capturing Russian/separatist held regions in Donetsk and Luhansk is now believed to be beyond the capabilities of the Ukrainian army. Thus the government has proposed to give more powers to the local regions, and plans to de-centralise power (grant greater autonomy) through regional elections planned for this December.

Some analysts suggest that letting go of the east is better for Ukraine--the country could move away from war and focus on getting its economic system in order and making new strides towards closer ties with Europe. However others suggest that Ukraine cannot give up and cannot allow Crimea to be given-up to Russia without a continuing battle. The current concern is whether Kyiv and Moscow will be able to come to an agreement about supplies to Crimea. If an agreement can be reached then further offensives may be withheld until the spring. But if an agreement cannot be reached and Ukraine cuts off supplies to Crimea, the potential for continuing active violence is greater.

There are many Ukrainians originally from the Donetsk and Luhansk region that are current displaced persons in central and western Ukraine. While some are being criticised for fleeing an area that now is relying on Western Ukrainian military volunteers to fight and die in the east, others are organising demonstrations in favour of a united Ukraine and against Russian aggression and war: “On the day of the DNR and LNR elections, November 2, we want to create an alternate image for Russian TV. When we held demonstrations for a united Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk earlier, Russian media really distorted the information, and most people had a wrong impression of events in the Donbas. Many thought there were no patriots there. We want to demonstrate that there are very many patriots in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and that we want to live in Ukraine. We want to go back home to a Ukrainian Donbas and Luhansk. We will not vote in the pseudo-elections and we will not submit to the governments of DNR and LNR. ”

A telling report and interview about how Russia organised social media and internet trolling to control opinion online:  ‘Around 250 people work 12-hour shifts, writing in blogs 24/7, working mostly in the Russian blogging platform Livejournal and a Facebook-esque social network Vkontakte. This is a full-cycle production: some write the posts, others comment on them. Most often they comment each other in order to boost the ratings. The refrain is always the same: the good Putin, the bad Poroshenko and the ugly Obama. The former workers at the Internet loyalty factory told dp.ru about its inner workings. Mostly people come not because they love Putin but because they have nowhere else to work. For instance, one room is occupied by a couple of retirees. They have nowhere else to work. That’s a good indicator of Putin’s Russia: the pension is small and you have nothing left to do but get paid to love Putin. And the money is good. Not many pleasant places will offer you 40 thousand rubles [$929 as of Nov 2.] a month.’